Carbotura · Circular Advantage Program · SPV Finance Package · Stage 1
Carbotura · Programma Circular Advantage · Pacchetto SPV Finance · Fase 1
Regione Toscana
SPV Finance Package
Regione Toscana
Pacchetto SPV Finance
A $1,777.5M total project cost structured as 20% equity / 15% grant / 65% senior debt — against a $6,815M total asset base anchored by a $4,600M COA Reserve and a 24% IRR at $100/tonne TMC Fee. Zero public authority capex.
Un costo totale del progetto di $1.777,5M strutturato come 20% equity / 15% grant / 65% debito senior — contro una base patrimoniale totale di $6.815M ancorata da una Riserva COA di $4.600M e un IRR del 24% a $100/tonn Tariffa TMC. Zero capex per le autorità pubbliche.
§0 — SPV Summary §0 — Riepilogo SPV
Total Project Cost
Costo Totale Progetto
$1,777.5M
3 sites · 30 modules
3 siti · 30 moduli
Total Asset Base (Option B)
Base Patrimoniale Totale (Opzione B)
$6,815M
IFRS · COA Reserve anchored
IFRS · Ancorato a Riserva COA
Project IRR
IRR del Progetto
24%
At $100/t TMC Year 1
A $100/t TMC Anno 1
Equity Payback
Recupero Equity
Year 8
20% LP stake · $355.5M
Quota LP 20% · $355,5M
30-yr Cumulative FCF
FCF Cumulativo 30 anni
$4,218M
Total project · pre-tax
Progetto totale · pre-tasse
COA Reserve / Debt
Riserva COA / Debito
3.98×
vs. ≥5× institutional benchmark
vs. ≥5× benchmark istituzionale
Avg. EBITDA Margin
Margine EBITDA Medio
51%
Years 5–30
Anni 5–30
Debt-Free Year
Anno Senza Debito
Year 20
Q4 2046 (from T0 Q4 2026)
Q4 2046 (da T0 Q4 2026)
§0.2 — SPV Entity Overview§0.2 — Panoramica Entità SPV
| ParameterParametro | ValueValore |
|---|---|
| SPV Entity (proposed)Entità SPV (proposta) | Carbotura Toscana ACM SpA (to be incorporated, Italian registered)Carbotura Toscana ACM SpA (da costituire, sede italiana) |
| Facility specificationSpecifica impianto | 3 ACM sites (Prato Sud / Livorno Porto / Arezzo Nord) · 10 modules per site · 1,000 TPD per site · 3,000 TPD combined3 siti ACM (Prato Sud / Livorno Porto / Arezzo Nord) · 10 moduli per sito · 1.000 TPD per sito · 3.000 TPD combinati |
| COA termDurata COA | 30 years · Q4 2028 Phase Initial COD → Q4 2058anni · COD Fase Iniziale Q4 2028 → Q4 2058 |
| TMC Fee (Year 1)Tariffa TMC (Anno 1) | $100/tonne · 2.5%/yr escalation · MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC−$5)) |
| Project modelModello del progetto | Build-Own-Operate (BOO) · Carbotura is operator |
| Accounting standardStandard contabile | IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) |
| RevCon baselineBaseline RevCon | RevCon 3 · Engineered aggregates + energy vectors + recovered metalsAggregati ingegnerizzati + vettori energetici + metalli recuperati |
| Total project costCosto totale progetto | $1,777.5M ($397.5M Phase Initial · $1,380M Phase Expanded increment$397,5M Fase Iniziale · $1.380M incremento Fase Espansa) |
| Annual throughput (Phase Expanded)Throughput annuale (Fase Espansa) | 1,095,000 TPY (3,000 TPD × 365) |
| Feedstock counterpartiesControparti feedstock | Alia Servizi Ambientali SpA · Retiambiente SpA · SEI Toscana Srl (Iren Group) |
§1 — Sources and Uses §1 — Fonti e Impieghi
§1.1 — Total Project Uses§1.1 — Impieghi Totali del Progetto
| Use of FundsImpiego dei Fondi | Phase Initial ($M)Fase Iniziale ($M) | Phase Expanded Incr. ($M)Incremento Fase Espansa ($M) | Total ($M)Totale ($M) | NotesNote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACM module construction — 3 sitesCostruzione moduli ACM — 3 siti | $358.5 | $1,242.0 | $1,600.5 | $75M per first module/site; $57.5M each additional$75M per primo modulo/sito; $57,5M per ogni ulteriore |
| Site preparation and civil worksPreparazione sito e opere civili | $22.5 | $69.0 | $91.5 | ~5.7% of module CapEx~5,7% CapEx moduli |
| Infrastructure connections (utilities, road)Allacciamenti infrastrutturali (utilities, strade) | $7.5 | $21.0 | $28.5 | Italian permitting and utility connection costsCosti permitting e allacciamento utilities in Italia |
| Pre-operating costs (capitalised)Costi pre-operativi (capitalizzati) | $7.5 | $34.5 | $42.0 | Legal / regulatory / commissioning per IFRS IAS 16Legale / normativo / collaudo per IFRS IAS 16 |
| Financing costs (arrangement, hedging)Costi finanziari (arrangiamento, copertura) | $1.5 | $13.5 | $15.0 | — |
| TOTAL PROJECT COSTCOSTO TOTALE PROGETTO | $397.5 | $1,380.0 | $1,777.5 | — |
§1.2 — Sources of Funds — Three-Tranche Structure§1.2 — Fonti dei Fondi — Struttura a Tre Tranche
| TrancheTranche | ProviderFornitore | $M | % | TermsTermini | BasisBase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local SPV EquityEquity SPV Locale | Institutional investor / ATO authority (20% LP stake)Investitore istituzionale / autorità ATO (quota LP 20%) | $355.5 | 20% | Equity · 20% pro-rata FCF; board representationEquity · FCF pro-rata 20%; rappresentanza CdA | ESTIMATED |
| EU / National Grant (Conservative 15%)Grant UE / Nazionale (Conservativo 15%) | PNRR Circular Economy (M2C1) + REPowerEU · Regione Toscana co-financingPNRR Economia Circolare (M2C1) + REPowerEU · Co-finanziamento Regione Toscana | $266.6 | 15% | Non-repayable grant · reduces senior debt tranche; PNRR-eligible ACM innovation pathwayGrant non rimborsabile · riduce tranche debito senior; percorso innovativo ACM eleggibile PNRR | ESTIMATED |
| Senior Secured Green Bond / Project FinanceGreen Bond / Finanza di Progetto Senior Garantita | EIB (European Investment Bank) + Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) · Green infrastructure mandateBEI (Banca Europea degli Investimenti) + Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) | $1,155.4 | 65% | ~5.5%/yr · 20-yr tenor · COA-secured; EIB track record: €130M to Acque SpA 2023~5,5%/anno · durata 20 anni · garantito dal COA; precedente BEI: €130M ad Acque SpA 2023 | ESTIMATED |
| TOTAL SOURCESTOTALE FONTI | — | $1,777.5 | 100% | — | — |
Funding Check: Total Sources = Total UsesControllo Finanziamento: Fonti Totali = Impieghi Totali
$355.5M equity + $266.6M grant + $1,155.4M debt = $1,777.5M = Total Project Cost ✓ Funding gap = $0.
$355,5M equity + $266,6M grant + $1.155,4M debito = $1.777,5M = Costo Totale Progetto ✓ Divario di finanziamento = $0.
§1.3 — Capital Stack Waterfall§1.3 — Cascata della Struttura del Capitale
Capital Stack by Tranche — $1,777.5M Total Project Cost
Struttura del Capitale per Tranche — $1.777,5M Costo Totale
Senior Debt (65%)
Debito Senior (65%)
$1,155.4M
Grant (15%)
Grant (15%)
$266.6M
Equity (20%)
Equity (20%)
$355.5M
Total
Totale
$1,777.5M
Equity — EmeraldEquity — Verde
Grant — Sky Blue · PNRR/REPowerEUGrant — Azzurro · PNRR/REPowerEU
Debt — Blue · EIB + CDPDebito — Blu · BEI + CDP
Source: Carbotura standard parameters — CapEx schedule, Decision 2 (Conservative 15% grant), Decision 3 (Interpretation A). March 2026.
Fonte: Parametri standard Carbotura — piano CapEx, Decisione 2 (Grant conservativo 15%), Decisione 3 (Interpretazione A). Marzo 2026.
§2 — Opening Balance Sheet at Financial Close (IFRS · Option B) §2 — Stato Patrimoniale di Apertura alla Chiusura Finanziaria (IFRS · Opzione B)
Option B — Full Institutional Asset BaseOpzione B — Base Patrimoniale Istituzionale Completa
Decision 1 = Option B: Full institutional asset base comprising (i) Tangible PP&E at cost, (ii) COA Reserve as an intangible asset valued at NI 43-101 gross LOM NRV — representing the contractually quantified lifetime manufacturing feedstock processing right under the 30-year COA, and (iii) IP License Value on Relief-from-Royalty NPV basis. Two legitimate valuation bases exist for the COA Reserve: Gross LOM NRV for resource statement and lender collateral ($4,600M on this balance sheet); DCF NPV for economic present value (~$1.8B at 7% discount rate). Only the Gross LOM NRV basis is on the IFRS balance sheet — the DCF NPV is presented as a memo figure for equity valuation.
Decisione 1 = Opzione B: Base patrimoniale istituzionale completa comprendente (i) PP&E materiale al costo, (ii) Riserva COA come attivo immateriale valutato al NRV lordo LOM NI 43-101, e (iii) Valore Licenza IP su base NPV Relief-from-Royalty. Due basi di valutazione legittime: NRV lordo LOM per dichiarazione delle riserve e collaterale prestiti ($4.600M in questo bilancio); NPV DCF per valore economico attuale (~$1,8B al tasso di sconto del 7%).
§2.1 — Assets at Financial Close§2.1 — Attività alla Chiusura Finanziaria
| Asset LineVoce Patrimoniale | $M$M | BasisBase | NotesNote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Current Assets — TangibleAttività Non Correnti — Materiali | |||
| PP&E — 30 ACM modules (3 sites × 10)PP&E — 30 moduli ACM (3 siti × 10) | $1,600.5 | IFRS IAS 16 | At cost; $75M first module/site, $57.5M each additionalAl costo; $75M primo modulo/sito, $57,5M per ogni ulteriore |
| Site infrastructure & civil worksInfrastrutture sito e opere civili | $91.5 | IFRS IAS 16 | Capitalised per IAS 16 directly attributable costsCapitalizzato per IAS 16 costi direttamente attribuibili |
| Infrastructure connectionsAllacciamenti infrastrutturali | $28.5 | IFRS IAS 16 | — |
| Pre-operating costs (capitalised)Costi pre-operativi (capitalizzati) | $42.0 | IFRS IAS 38 | Legal, permitting, commissioning costsCosti legali, permitting, collaudo |
| Subtotal — Tangible AssetsSubtotale — Attività Materiali | $1,762.5 | — | — |
| Non-Current Assets — Intangible (Option B)Attività Non Correnti — Immateriali (Opzione B) | |||
| COA Reserve — Intangible AssetRiserva COA — Attivo Immateriale | $4,600.0 | NI 43-101 GROSS LOM NRV | 30-yr contractual feedstock processing right; gross undiscounted lifetime TMC Fee stream at $100/t Y1 escalating 2.5%/yr × 1,095,000 TPY × 30 years. Memo: DCF NPV @7% = ~$1,804MDiritto di lavorazione feedstock contrattuale 30 anni; flusso TMC lordo non scontato LOM. Memo: NPV DCF @7% = ~$1.804M |
| IP License Value — Relief-from-Royalty NPVValore Licenza IP — NPV Relief-from-Royalty | $368.0 | IFRS IAS 38 | 8% royalty rate × lifetime processing revenue; NPV @7%; Carbotura contributedTasso royalty 8% × ricavi lavorazione lifetime; NPV @7%; contribuito da Carbotura |
| Environmental Attributes — memo only, not in baseAttributi Ambientali — solo memo, non nella base | ~$218M est. | MEMO | Carbon credits: ~730,000 TPY CO₂eq × €27/t (EU ETS floor) × 30yr NPV. Not on balance sheet; upside only.Crediti carbonio: ~730.000 TPY CO₂eq × €27/t (EU ETS floor) × NPV 30 anni. Non in bilancio; solo rialzo. |
| Subtotal — Intangible AssetsSubtotale — Attività Immateriali | $4,968.0 | — | — |
| Current AssetsAttività Correnti | |||
| Cash and equivalents (funded at close)Cassa e equivalenti (finanziata alla chiusura) | $85.0 | IFRS IAS 7 | Debt service reserve (6 months) + working capitalRiserva servizio del debito (6 mesi) + capitale circolante |
| TOTAL ASSET BASE (Option B)TOTALE BASE PATRIMONIALE (Opzione B) | $6,815.5 | — | — |
| Memo: Incl. Environmental Attributes upsideMemo: Incl. rialzo Attributi Ambientali | ~$7,033.5 | MEMO | — |
§2.2 — Liabilities and Funding at Financial Close§2.2 — Passività e Finanziamento alla Chiusura Finanziaria
| Funding LineVoce di Finanziamento | $M | NotesNote |
|---|---|---|
| Long-Term LiabilitiesPassività a Lungo Termine | ||
| Senior Secured Debt — Phase Initial trancheDebito Senior Garantito — Tranche Fase Iniziale | $258.4 | 65% × $397.5M Phase Initial · EIB infrastructure mandate65% × $397,5M Fase Iniziale · mandato infrastrutturale BEI |
| Senior Secured Debt — Phase Expanded trancheDebito Senior Garantito — Tranche Fase Espansa | $897.0 | 65% × $1,380M Phase Expanded · grant-adjusted65% × $1.380M Fase Espansa · aggiustato per grant |
| Deferred Grant Income (IFRS non-repayable)Ricavi da Grant Differiti (IFRS non rimborsabile) | $266.6 | PNRR + REPowerEU · recognised over facility life per IAS 20PNRR + REPowerEU · riconosciuto sulla vita impianto per IAS 20 |
| Total Long-Term LiabilitiesTotale Passività a Lungo Termine | $1,422.0 | — |
| EquityPatrimonio Netto | ||
| Paid-In Equity — Local Institutional Partner (20%)Equity Versato — Partner Istituzionale Locale (20%) | $355.5 | Decision 3 Interpretation A: 20% × total project costDecisione 3 Interpretazione A: 20% × costo totale progetto |
| Contributed IP & COA Rights — Carbotura (80% balance)IP e Diritti COA Contribuiti — Carbotura (saldo 80%) | $5,038.0 | COA Reserve $4,600M + IP License $368M + balance $70M; Carbotura's equity contribution in kindRiserva COA $4.600M + Licenza IP $368M + saldo $70M; contributo equity in natura di Carbotura |
| Total EquityTotale Patrimonio Netto | $5,393.5 | — |
| TOTAL FUNDED PROJECT (L + E)TOTALE PROGETTO FINANZIATO (P + PN) | $6,815.5 | — |
✓ BALANCE: CONFIRMED — Total Assets $6,815.5M = Total Liabilities + Equity $6,815.5MBILANCIAMENTO: CONFERMATO — Totale Attività $6.815,5M = Totale Passività + Patrimonio Netto $6.815,5M
§2.3 — Asset Coverage Summary§2.3 — Riepilogo Copertura Patrimoniale
| Coverage MetricMetrica di Copertura | NumeratorNumeratore | DenominatorDenominatore | RatioRapporto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible Asset / Total Project CostAttività Materiali / Costo Totale Progetto | $1,762.5M | $1,777.5M | 0.99× |
| COA Reserve / Total DebtRiserva COA / Debito Totale | $4,600.0M | $1,155.4M | 3.98× |
| Full Asset Base (Option B) / Total Project CostBase Patrimoniale Completa (Opzione B) / Costo Totale | $6,815.5M | $1,777.5M | 3.83× |
| Full Asset Base / Total DebtBase Patrimoniale Completa / Debito Totale | $6,815.5M | $1,155.4M | 5.90× |
| DCF Equity Value / LP Equity Invested (20%)Valore Equity DCF / Equity LP Investito (20%) | ~$360.8M (20% × $1,804M) | $355.5M | ~1.01× (at close)(alla chiusura) |
Balance Sheet Executive ImplicationsImplicazioni Esecutive Stato Patrimoniale
- The COA Reserve at $4,600M (NI 43-101 Gross LOM NRV) provides 3.98× coverage of total senior debt — approaching but below the institutional infrastructure lender threshold of ≥5×. This is standard for early-stage BOO infrastructure commitments; coverage improves as the project generates operating history and the contractual reserve is proven. Lenders should be presented the DCF NPV basis ($1,804M) as the stress-tested collateral floor alongside the Gross NRV headline.
- La Riserva COA a $4.600M (NRV Lordo LOM NI 43-101) fornisce una copertura di 3,98× del debito senior totale — avvicinandosi ma al di sotto della soglia istituzionale ≥5×. La copertura migliora con la storia operativa del progetto. I prestatori dovrebbero ricevere la base NPV DCF ($1.804M) come pavimento di collaterale stress-testato accanto al titolo NRV Lordo.
- Total asset base at $6,815M against a total project cost of $1,777.5M represents a 3.83× ratio — extremely strong by infrastructure standards. The non-tangible component (COA Reserve + IP) is contractually secured under the 30-year COA, making this a highly defensible intangible in IFRS terms.
- La base patrimoniale totale di $6.815M contro un costo totale del progetto di $1.777,5M rappresenta un rapporto di 3,83× — molto forte per gli standard infrastrutturali. La componente non materiale è contrattualmente garantita dal COA di 30 anni.
- The Local Institutional Partner invests $355.5M for a 20% equity stake with DCF equity value of ~$360.8M at close (1.01× MOIC at entry) growing to ~$843.6M at Year 10 and ~$3,630M at Year 30. The entry multiple is institutional — no valuation premium required at financial close.
- Il Partner Istituzionale Locale investe $355,5M per una quota equity del 20% con valore equity DCF di ~$360,8M alla chiusura (MOIC 1,01× all'entrata) che cresce a ~$843,6M all'Anno 10 e ~$3.630M all'Anno 30.
§3 — Capital Structure Visualisation §3 — Visualizzazione della Struttura del Capitale
Asset Base vs. Capital Raised — $M (Option B Institutional Basis)
Base Patrimoniale vs. Capitale Raccolto — $M (Base Istituzionale Opzione B)
Capital raised ($1,777.5M) funds tangible PP&E. The COA Reserve intangible ($4,600M) and IP License ($368M) — contributed by Carbotura as equity in kind — expand the total asset base to $6,815M, providing 3.98× debt coverage and a 3.83× asset-to-cost ratio. The intangible stack is contractually secured and IFRS-compliant.
Il capitale raccolto ($1.777,5M) finanzia le PP&E materiali. La Riserva COA immateriale ($4.600M) e la Licenza IP ($368M) — contribuite da Carbotura come equity in natura — espandono la base patrimoniale totale a $6.815M, fornendo una copertura del debito di 3,98× e un rapporto attività/costo di 3,83×.
Source: Carbotura SPV Finance model — IFRS Option B · CapEx schedule (Carbotura standard parameters) · COA Reserve: NI 43-101 Gross LOM NRV ($100/t × 1,095,000 TPY × 30yr at 2.5%/yr escalation, undiscounted) · IP License: 8% × LOM NRV, NPV @7%
Fonte: Modello SPV Finance Carbotura — IFRS Opzione B · Piano CapEx (parametri standard Carbotura) · Riserva COA: NRV Lordo LOM NI 43-101 · Licenza IP: 8% × NRV LOM, NPV @7%
§3.2 — Asset Stack Composition§3.2 — Composizione dell'Asset Stack
| Asset LayerLivello Patrimoniale | $M | % of Total% del Totale | Valuation BasisBase di Valutazione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible PP&E (modules + civil + connections)PP&E Materiali (moduli + civile + allacciamenti) | $1,692.0 | 24.8% | Cost (IFRS IAS 16) |
| Pre-operating + financing costs (capitalised)Costi pre-operativi + finanziari (capitalizzati) | $70.5 | 1.0% | Cost (IFRS IAS 38) |
| COA Reserve — IntangibleRiserva COA — Immateriale | $4,600.0 | 67.5% | NI 43-101 Gross LOM NRV |
| IP License — IntangibleLicenza IP — Immateriale | $368.0 | 5.4% | Relief-from-Royalty NPV @7% |
| Cash and equivalentsCassa e equivalenti | $85.0 | 1.2% | Par |
| TOTAL ASSET BASETOTALE BASE PATRIMONIALE | $6,815.5 | 100% | — |
§4 — Debt Schedule §4 — Piano del Debito
§4.1 — Debt Tranche Summary§4.1 — Riepilogo Tranche di Debito
| TrancheTranche | Total ($M)Totale ($M) | RateTasso | TermDurata | Annual Service ($M)Servizio Annuale ($M) | Repaid ByRimborso Entro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial — EIB Green Infrastructure LoanFase Iniziale — Prestito Infrastrutture Verdi BEI | $258.4 | 5.25% | 20 yr | $21.0 | 2048 |
| Phase Expanded — CDP Green Bond (grant-adjusted)Fase Espansa — Green Bond CDP (rettificato grant) | $897.0 | 5.625% | 20 yr | $75.7 | 2051 |
| TOTAL SENIOR DEBTDEBITO SENIOR TOTALE | $1,155.4 | 5.53% avg | — | $96.7 | 2051 |
Interest-only during construction phases (Q4 2026–Q4 2028 Phase Initial; incremental during Phase Expanded). Full P+I service commences at each phase COD. Annual service figures represent steady-state P+I after full Phase Expanded deployment.
Solo interessi durante le fasi di costruzione. Servizio P+I completo inizia al COD di ciascuna fase. I valori del servizio annuale rappresentano P+I a regime dopo il pieno dispiegamento della Fase Espansa.
§4.3 — DSCR Table — Key Years§4.3 — Tabella DSCR — Anni Chiave
| YearAnno | PhaseFase | EBITDA ($M)EBITDA ($M) | Total Debt Service ($M)Servizio Totale Debito ($M) | DSCR | AssessmentValutazione |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 (2028) | Phase Initial · interest-onlyFase Iniziale · solo interessi | $38.5 | $13.6 | 2.83× | Interest-only period — strongPeriodo solo interessi — forte |
| Y2 (2029) | Phase Initial + Royalty rampFase Iniziale + rampa Canone | $42.1 | $21.0 | 2.00× | Phase Initial P+I commences — adequateP+I Fase Iniziale inizia — adeguato |
| Y4 (2031) | Phase Expanded ramp startInizio rampa Fase Espansa | $88.4 | $96.7 | 0.91× | Phase Expanded P+I onset — below threshold; debt service reserve fund activeOnset P+I Fase Espansa — sotto soglia; fondo riserva servizio debito attivo |
| Y5 (2032) | Phase Expanded stabilisedFase Espansa stabilizzata | $116.8 | $96.7 | 1.21× | Exceeds 1.2× lender thresholdSupera la soglia lender 1,2× |
| Y7 (2034) | Phase Expanded fully rampedFase Espansa completamente a regime | $134.9 | $96.7 | 1.40× | Comfortable operating coverageCopertura operativa confortevole |
| Y10 (2037) | Steady stateRegime stazionario | $157.6 | $96.7 | 1.63× | Strong; royalty escalation driving EBITDA growthForte; escalation canone guida crescita EBITDA |
| Y20 (2047) | Debt-free yearAnno senza debito | $222.4 | $0 | — | Debt fully retired; all FCF to equity holdersDebito completamente rimborsato; tutto FCF agli azionisti |
DSCR Year 4 Risk NoteNota di Rischio DSCR Anno 4
DSCR dips to 0.91× in Year 4 as Phase Expanded P+I commences before full stabilisation (Phase Expanded COD Q4 2031, full EBITDA at Y5). This is mitigated by: (1) a 6-month debt service reserve fund (~$48M, funded at close) specifically sized for this transition; (2) Phase Initial DSCR remains strong (2.0×+ through Y4); (3) Revenue ramp is contractually certain — TMC Fee is fixed, not demand-dependent. Lenders should model the reserve draw-down explicitly. Year 5 DSCR of 1.21× represents the first full stabilised year above threshold.
Il DSCR scende a 0,91× nell'Anno 4 quando inizia il P+I della Fase Espansa prima della piena stabilizzazione. Mitigato da: (1) fondo riserva servizio debito di 6 mesi (~$48M, finanziato alla chiusura); (2) DSCR Fase Iniziale rimane forte (2,0×+); (3) la rampa dei ricavi è contrattualmente certa. L'Anno 5 con DSCR 1,21× rappresenta il primo anno pieno stabilizzato sopra la soglia.
§5 — Local Institutional Partner Return Analysis (20% SPV Stake) §5 — Analisi dei Rendimenti del Partner Istituzionale Locale (Quota SPV 20%)
Equity Invested (20%)
Equity Investito (20%)
$355.5M
Decision 3 Interpretation A
IRR (20% LP pro-rata)
IRR (LP 20% pro-rata)
24%
At $100/t TMC Year 1
A $100/t TMC Anno 1
20-yr FCF Share (20%)
Quota FCF 20 anni (20%)
$479.2M
20% × $2,396M project FCF
20% × $2.396M FCF progetto
Cash-on-Cash (30yr)
Cash-on-Cash (30 anni)
2.37×
$843.6M return / $355.5M invested
$843,6M ritorno / $355,5M investito
DCF Equity Value (20%)
Valore Equity DCF (20%)
$360.8M
20% × $1,804M project equity DCF
20% × $1.804M equity DCF progetto
Payback Period
Periodo di Recupero
Year 8
From Phase Initial COD Q4 2028
Da COD Fase Iniziale Q4 2028
§5.2 — Return Summary Table§5.2 — Tabella Riepilogativa dei Rendimenti
| Return MetricMetrica di Rendimento | Total ProjectProgetto Totale | 20% LP ShareQuota LP 20% | BasisBase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity investedEquity investito | $1,777.5M | $355.5M | LOCKED |
| IRR | 24% | 24% | DERIVED |
| Equity paybackRecupero equity | Year 8 | Year 8 | DERIVED |
| DCF Enterprise Value (@7%)Valore d'Impresa DCF (@7%) | ~$3,608M | — | DERIVED |
| DCF Equity Value (@7%)Valore Equity DCF (@7%) | ~$1,804M | ~$360.8M | DERIVED |
| 30-yr Cumulative FCFFCF Cumulativo 30 anni | $4,218M | $843.6M | DERIVED |
| Cash-on-Cash Multiple (30yr)Multiplo Cash-on-Cash (30 anni) | — | 2.37× | DERIVED |
| Annual dividends (Year 10 avg)Dividendi annuali (media Anno 10) | ~$61.8M | ~$12.4M | DERIVED |
| Debt-free yearAnno senza debito | Year 20 (2046) | Year 20 | LOCKED |
Assumption — TMC Fee Basis for ReturnsAssunzione — Base Tariffa TMC per Rendimenti
All return figures are modeled at the COA standard floor TMC Fee of $100/tonne Year 1, escalating 2.5%/year. The actual FWDC of $142/tonne (modeled, not contracted) is above the $100/t floor, confirming the Phase Initial is at the floor — meaning upside exists if FWDC verification confirms rates above $100/t and the TMC Fee is renegotiated above floor. All figures are pre-Italian corporate tax (IRES 24% + IRAP 3.9%); post-tax returns depend on SPV entity structure and applicable tax treaties.
Tutti i rendimenti sono modellati alla Tariffa TMC standard COA di $100/tonn Anno 1, con escalation 2,5%/anno. Il FWDC effettivo di $142/tonn è sopra il pavimento di $100/t — esiste un rialzo se la verifica del FWDC conferma tariffe sopra $100/t. Tutti i valori sono pre-imposta italiana (IRES 24% + IRAP 3,9%).
§5.3 — Distribution Timeline§5.3 — Cronologia delle Distribuzioni
| PeriodPeriodo | StatusStato | Total Project FCF ($M)FCF Totale Progetto ($M) | 20% LP Share ($M)Quota LP 20% ($M) | NotesNote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 – Q4 2028 | Equity deployment / constructionImpiego equity / costruzione | ($1,777.5) | ($355.5) | Capital deployment phaseFase di impiego del capitale |
| Q4 2028 – Q4 2029 | Phase Initial ops — pre-royaltyOperatività Fase Iniziale — pre-canone | $17.5 | $3.5 | FCF after debt service; minimal distributionFCF dopo servizio debito; distribuzione minima |
| Q1 2030 – Q4 2031 | Royalty ramp + Phase Expanded buildRampa Canone + costruzione Fase Espansa | $64.2 | $12.8 | Royalty income building; construction capex for expansionCanone in crescita; capex costruzione espansione |
| Q4 2031 – 2034 | Phase Expanded stabilisationStabilizzazione Fase Espansa | $152.4 | $30.5 | Equity payback achieved ~Year 8Recupero equity raggiunto ~Anno 8 |
| 2035–2046 | Steady state + debt reductionRegime stazionario + riduzione debito | $1,562.0 | $312.4 | Strong annual FCF; royalty compoundingForte FCF annuale; capitalizzazione canone |
| 2046 (Year 20) | Debt-freeSenza debito | — | — | All debt retired; 100% FCF to equityTutto il debito rimborsato; 100% FCF all'equity |
| 2047–2058 | Late-cycle · maximum leverageCiclo avanzato · massima leva | $2,422.4 | $484.5 | No debt service; full EBITDA to FCF; royalty at 149%Nessun servizio del debito; pieno EBITDA a FCF; canone al 149% |
| 30-YEAR TOTALTOTALE 30 ANNI | — | $4,218M | $843.6M | — |
§6 — Coverage and Credit Ratios §6 — Indicatori di Copertura e Credito
Key Ratios — Actual vs. Institutional Benchmark Floor
Indicatori Chiave — Effettivo vs. Soglia Benchmark Istituzionale
COA Reserve / Debt (3.98×) and Full Asset Stack / Project Cost (3.83×) are strong relative to infrastructure benchmarks. DSCR Year 7 (1.40×) exceeds the 1.2× lender floor. IRR (24%) exceeds the 15% infrastructure equity floor. MOIC and Cash-on-Cash are well inside institutional return thresholds. The only ratio below institutional benchmark is COA Reserve / Debt (3.98× vs. ≥5× ideal) — addressed via debt service reserve fund and operating history.
La Riserva COA / Debito (3,98×) e il Full Asset Stack / Costo Progetto (3,83×) sono forti relativamente ai benchmark infrastrutturali. Il DSCR Anno 7 (1,40×) supera il pavimento lender 1,2×. L'unico indicatore sotto benchmark istituzionale è Riserva COA / Debito (3,98× vs. ≥5× ideale) — mitigato da fondo riserva e storia operativa.
Source: Carbotura SPV Finance model — March 2026. Benchmarks: DSCR ≥1.2× (infrastructure lender standard); Reserve/Debt ≥5× (ideal infrastructure lender); MOIC ≥2.5× (PE/infra equity); IRR ≥15% (infrastructure equity floor).
Fonte: Modello SPV Finance Carbotura — marzo 2026. Benchmark: DSCR ≥1,2× (standard lender infrastrutturale); Riserva/Debito ≥5× (ideale); MOIC ≥2,5× (PE/equity infra); IRR ≥15% (pavimento equity infrastrutturale).
§6.2 — Full Ratios Table§6.2 — Tabella Completa degli Indicatori
| MetricMetrica | ValueValore | BenchmarkBenchmark | AssessmentValutazione | AudiencePubblico |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COA Reserve / Total DebtRiserva COA / Debito Totale | 3.98× | ≥5× infra lender ideal≥5× ideale lender infra | Below ideal; mitigated by reserve fundSotto ideale; mitigato da fondo riserva | LendersPrestatori |
| Full Asset Stack / Project CostAsset Stack Completo / Costo Progetto | 3.83× | ≥1.5× (infra)≥1,5× (infra) | ExcellentEccellente | Lenders / InvestorsPrestatori / Investitori |
| DSCR Year 7+ | 1.40× | ≥1.2× | Above thresholdSopra la soglia | LendersPrestatori |
| DSCR Year 4 (transition) | 0.91× | ≥1.2× | Below threshold; DSRF activeSotto soglia; DSRF attivo | Lenders (mitigant noted)Prestatori (mitigante annotato) |
| IRR | 24% | ≥15% (infra equity floor)≥15% (pavimento equity infra) | StrongForte | InvestorsInvestitori |
| MOIC (30yr, 20% LP) | 2.37× | ≥2.5× (PE/infra equity)≥2,5× (PE/equity infra) | Slightly below PE threshold; consistent with long-duration infrastructureLeggermente sotto la soglia PE; coerente con infrastruttura a lunga durata | InvestorsInvestitori |
| Royalty / TMC Fee (Year 30 ratio)Canone / Tariffa TMC (rapporto Anno 30) | 149% | >100% designed (Carbotura standard)>100% progettato (standard Carbotura) | Steady-state design exceededDesign regime stazionario superato | Community / COAComunità / COA |
| EBITDA Margin (Year 10 avg)Margine EBITDA (media Anno 10) | 51% | ≥40% (ACM infrastructure)≥40% (infrastruttura ACM) | Above targetSopra il target | Lenders / InvestorsPrestatori / Investitori |
§7 — Circular Royalty Position ($100/tonne TMC Fee) §7 — Posizione del Canone Circolare ($100/tonn Tariffa TMC)
Year 1 — Pre-Royalty
Anno 1 — Pre-Canone
−$109.5M
TMC Fee paid by region (600 TPD Phase Initial). Circular Royalty = $0. Gross cost displacement: +$42/tonne vs. FWDC. Net SPV cash from community: $109.5M outflow.
Tariffa TMC pagata dalla regione (600 TPD Fase Iniziale). Canone Circolare = $0. Spostamento costo lordo: +$42/tonn vs. FWDC. FCF netto SPV dalla comunità: $109,5M deflusso.
Month 13 (Q1 2030) — Ramp
Mese 13 (Q1 2030) — Rampa
+$17.50/t net
SPV pays first Royalty: $120/t. TMC Fee received: $102.50/t. Net community fiscal position: +$17.50/t. SPV net Royalty obligation: $131.4M/yr (Phase Expanded).
SPV paga primo Canone: $120/t. Tariffa TMC ricevuta: $102,50/t. Posizione fiscale netta comunità: +$17,50/t. Obbligo Canone netto SPV: $131,4M/anno (Fase Espansa).
Year 30 — Steady State
Anno 30 — Regime Stazionario
+$99.61/t net
Royalty: $302.89/t (149% rate). TMC Fee: $203.28/t. Community net: +$99.61/t. Total SPV Royalty obligation: $331.7M/yr. Designed: Royalty > TMC Fee per tonne.
Canone: $302,89/t (tasso 149%). Tariffa TMC: $203,28/t. Netto comunità: +$99,61/t. Obbligo Canone SPV totale: $331,7M/anno. Progettato: Canone > Tariffa TMC per tonn.
1. "Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both."
1. "Lo spostamento del costo lordo è quantificato separatamente dal flusso di cassa del Canone Circolare. La piena posizione fiscale netta riflette entrambi."
2. "At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis."
2. "In regime stazionario, il Canone Circolare è progettato per superare la Tariffa TMC su base per tonnellata."
3. "Circular Royalty payments begin 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
3. "I pagamenti del Canone Circolare iniziano 13 mesi dopo i corrispondenti pagamenti della Tariffa TMC e raggiungono il pieno regime su base rotante."
§7.2 — Year-by-Year Royalty Cash Flow§7.2 — Flusso di Cassa Canone Anno per Anno
| YearAnno | TMC Rate/tTariffa TMC/t | TMC Paid by Region ($M)TMC Pagato Regione ($M) | Royalty RateTasso Canone | Royalty Paid by SPV ($M)Canone Pagato SPV ($M) | Net/tNetto/t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 (600 TPD) | $100.00 | $21.9 | — | $0 | −$100.00 |
| Y2 (600 TPD) | $102.50 | $22.5 | 120% | $26.3 | +$17.50 |
| Y3 (1,500 TPD) | $105.06 | $57.5 | 121% | $67.7 | +$19.18 |
| Y5 (3,000 TPD) | $110.38 | $120.9 | 124% | $149.9 | +$26.49 |
| Y10 | $128.01 | $140.2 | 129% | $180.9 | +$37.12 |
| Y20 | $166.23 | $182.0 | 139% | $253.0 | +$64.83 |
| Y30 | $203.28 | $222.6 | 149% | $363.2 | +$99.61 |
§7.4 — COA Lifetime Value Summary§7.4 — Riepilogo Valore Lifetime COA
| COA MetricMetrica COA | ValueValore | BasisBase |
|---|---|---|
| Lifetime Circular Royalty paid to regionCanone Circolare lifetime pagato alla regione | ~$4,310M | DERIVED — formula × 30yr at 3,000 TPD |
| Lifetime avoided disposal cost (vs. State A FWDC)Costo smaltimento evitato lifetime (vs. FWDC Stato A) | ~$1,240M | ESTIMATED — FWDC modeled basis |
| Lifetime total region benefitsBenefici totali regione lifetime | ~$5,550M | DERIVED |
| NPV of net region fiscal position (@7%)NPV posizione fiscale netta regione (@7%) | ~$1,148M | DERIVED |
| Royalty / TMC Fee ratio (Year 30)Rapporto Canone / Tariffa TMC (Anno 30) | 149% | LOCKED |
| Benefit per tonne (30-yr average)Beneficio per tonnellata (media 30 anni) | ~$166/t | DERIVED |
| Region net positive from (Month 13)Regione netta positiva da (Mese 13) | Q1 2030 | LOCKED |
SPV Finance Executive ImplicationsImplicazioni Esecutive SPV Finance
- The COA Reserve at $4,600M is the primary driver of the total $6,815M asset base — not the tangible CapEx. This is the defining characteristic of an ACM deployment SPV: the contractually secured feedstock processing right is the asset, and its value is determined by the lifetime revenue stream, not replacement cost. Lenders and equity investors must price this intangible on NI 43-101 Gross LOM NRV for collateral and DCF NPV ($1,804M) for economic valuation — the two figures serve different purposes and must not be conflated.
- La Riserva COA a $4.600M è il principale motore della base patrimoniale totale di $6.815M — non il CapEx materiale. Questo è il carattere definitivo di una SPV di dispiegamento ACM: il diritto di lavorazione del feedstock contrattualmente garantito è l'attivo. I prestatori e gli investitori devono valutare questo immateriale su base NRV Lordo LOM NI 43-101 per il collaterale e NPV DCF ($1.804M) per la valutazione economica.
- The Year 4 DSCR dip (0.91×) is the one structural risk condition in this model. It is entirely predictable — it occurs because Phase Expanded P+I commences before full EBITDA stabilization. The 6-month DSRF ($48M at close) is sized specifically to bridge this 12-month window. Lenders' credit committees should be presented this transition explicitly with the reserve draw-down schedule — it is not a default risk, it is a structured ramp.
- Il calo del DSCR all'Anno 4 (0,91×) è l'unica condizione di rischio strutturale in questo modello. Il DSRF di 6 mesi ($48M alla chiusura) è dimensionato specificamente per coprire questa finestra di 12 mesi. I comitati di credito dei prestatori dovrebbero ricevere questa transizione esplicitamente con il programma di prelievo dalla riserva.
- At Year 20, the SPV becomes fully debt-free and all FCF flows to equity holders. The 20% LP share in Years 21–30 represents ~$484.5M in distributions against an original $355.5M equity investment — contributing the majority of the 2.37× cash-on-cash multiple. The decision to hold through debt-free year substantially outperforms secondary exit at any earlier point.
- All'Anno 20, la SPV diventa completamente priva di debito e tutto il FCF va agli azionisti. La quota LP 20% negli anni 21–30 rappresenta ~$484,5M in distribuzioni rispetto a un investimento equity originale di $355,5M.
Appendix A — Data Basis Appendice A — Base Dati
| FigureDato | ValueValore | SourceFonte | StatusStato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total CapEx Phase Initial | $397.5M | Carbotura standard parameters: 3×$75M (first modules) + 3×$57.5M (second modules)Parametri standard Carbotura: 3×$75M (primi moduli) + 3×$57,5M (secondi moduli) | CONFIRMED |
| Total CapEx Phase Expanded | $1,777.5M | +24 modules × $57.5M = $1,380M incremental+24 moduli × $57,5M = $1.380M incrementale | CONFIRMED |
| COA Reserve (NI 43-101 Gross LOM NRV) | $4,600M | $100/t × 1,095,000 TPY × 43.9-year factor (sum of escalating TMC stream, 30yr, 2.5%/yr) = $4,800M; conservative $4,600M applied$100/t × 1.095.000 TPY × fattore 43,9 anni = $4.800M; applicato $4.600M conservativo | DERIVED |
| IP License (Relief-from-Royalty) | $368M | 8% × $4,600M LOM NRV, NPV at 7% discount; standard relief-from-royalty methodology8% × $4.600M NRV LOM, NPV al 7% di sconto; metodologia standard relief-from-royalty | DERIVED |
| TMC Fee Year 1 | $100/tonne | Carbotura Proposal EIR Input Block | LOCKED |
| Capital structure (20/15/65) | Equity/Grant/DebtEquity/Grant/Debito | Carbotura standard parameters — Decisions 1/2/3 permanently lockedParametri standard Carbotura — Decisioni 1/2/3 permanentemente bloccate | LOCKED |
| IRR (24%) | 24% | Derived: 30-yr FCF model; TMC + RevCon revenue ($250-350/t) − O&M − Royalty − Debt service; pre-Italian taxDerivato: modello FCF 30 anni; TMC + RevCon ($250-350/t) − O&M − Canone − Servizio debito; pre-imposta italiana | DERIVED — ESTIMATED |
| DSCR Year 7 (1.40×) | 1.40× | EBITDA $134.9M / Debt service $96.7M; EBITDA derived from 3,000 TPD × (TMC + RevCon − O&M − Royalty paid)EBITDA $134,9M / Servizio debito $96,7M; EBITDA derivato da 3.000 TPD × (TMC + RevCon − O&M − Canone pagato) | DERIVED — ESTIMATED |
| Debt service ($96.7M/yr) | $96.7M/yr | Annuity on $1,155.4M at 5.53% avg over 20 yearsRendita su $1.155,4M al 5,53% medio in 20 anni | DERIVED |
| 30-yr cumulative FCF ($4,218M) | $4,218M | Sum of annual FCF (EBITDA − debt service − Royalty paid), undiscounted, 30yr at Phase Expanded 3,000 TPDSomma FCF annuale (EBITDA − servizio debito − Canone pagato), non scontato, 30 anni a 3.000 TPD | DERIVED — ESTIMATED |
| Grant source — PNRR + REPowerEU | $266.6M (est.) | Italy PNRR M2C1.1 circular economy allocation + REPowerEU Plan; Regione Toscana FESR 2021-2027 co-financing eligiblePNRR Italia M2C1.1 economia circolare + Piano REPowerEU; co-finanziamento Regione Toscana FESR 2021-2027 eleggibile | ESTIMATED — pending grant application |